Confidence: 60%
The line here is Wisconsin by -7.0, which leaves very little margin with the Double Digit Win. This is mainly why I am only 60% sure on this prop; I will probably not pick this as it is not worth risking a W6. I recommend this because this pick is the best out of all the nighttime matchups. Wisconsin has a great offense and defense as well. Wisconsin’s offense ranks 1st overall in the nation while its defense is 3rd. MSU’s offense is not as potent, but its defense ranks 4th in the nation, right behind Wisconsin. Wisconsin is definitely the favorite, but MSU also has a realistic chance of winning. They both play at such a high level that with regards to this prop, anything can happen.
A closer look at Wisconsin’s 6-0 record shows that they have blown out all their opponents. However, there are a couple caveats; Wisconsin has played all its games at home, and its only formidable opponent was Nebraska. Wisconsin has never faced as good a defense as MSU’s and MSU has the home field advantage, which will be a factor in this game. Russell Wilson has never seen MSU before and last year MSU beat Wisconsin at home. Yes, the teams are not the same as last year, but the fact that MSU beat them at home can still be used to a limited degree as an indicator of the coaching and matchup between these two teams.
I have chosen this pick solely due to the fact that it is more appealing than any of the other night picks. If you have W3 or more, I would not pick tonight at all. If you have a lower than a W2 or must pick a game tonight, Michigan State: Win or Single Digit Loss is the way to go.
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