Nebraska @ Minnesota: Any Other Result
Confidence: 80%
The line here moved from -24.5 to -24.0 for Nebraska, which is not a big move, but favors Minnesota in this pick. Yes, Nebraska will win this pick but by 30 points? Not likely. With a 6 point cushion for Minnesota, as of this writing, Minnesota is the pick if you're only looking at the line.
However, a few things have kept me wary of this pick, hence the 80% and not 90% confidence rating. The Gophers are an extremely bad team. They have been blown out by 58 at Michigan and by 28 at Purdue. The loss to Michigan is not as worrying as is the loss to Purdue, considering that Purdue is nowhere near the same caliber as Nebraska.
On the other hand, Minnesota has kept it close in the other three losses, with only a 7.33 point differential. Taking into account the Michigan and Purdue losses, Minnesota has an average losing point differential of 21.6, giving plenty of cushion with the 30+ Winning Margin prop. Granted, Nebraska definitely has more scoring power than the majority of Minnesota's previous opponents, though, how potent is in question. However, Nebraska has only won once by 30 points to Chattanooga, not a very good team, and has an average winning margin of 18. None of the previous histories of either team suggest a Nebraska win of 30+ points, especially since Minnesota is playing at home. Four of Nebraska's five wins have come at home, and the loss to Wisconsin proves that they are not the top of the elite teams.
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