Wed, Dec 28, 2011 Pick

New York Knicks
Confidence: 85%

The Knicks are looking good with Chandler and they have the line in their favor here at -5.5.  Golden State has beaten the Bulls and have home court advantage, but with Melo, Stat, and Chandler, the Knicks should take care of business.

Thursday, Dec 22, 2011 Pick

Missouri Tigers
Confidence: 95%

I like Missouri with the -6.5 line here, which should be plenty to cover the straight up win.

Dec 18, 2011 Picks

Chicago Bears
Confidence: 85%

Seattle has been playing well and with Jay Cutler out, Chicago certainly has some problems on offense, but Chicago is favored by -3.5 and I think that they are the better team.  I think that Chicago's D will hold up enough to give them the win.

Sunday, Dec 11, 2011 Picks

Miami Dolphins
Confidence: 80%

Dolphins are favored by -3, and I think Matt Moore shows a lot of promise.  Eagles haven't been doing too well, and I like the Dolphins at home.

Wed, Dec 7, 2011 Picks

Missouri State Bears
Confidence: 95%

With Missouri State giving -6.5 to Oklahoma State, the Bears are the pick here, especially with the home court advantage.

Sun, Dec 4, 2011 Picks

New York Jets
Confidence:85%

I'm a Jets fan, so I'll be rooting hard for the Jets, but the thing to be wary of here is that the line is only -3 in favor of the Jets.  However, the Jets are definitely a better team and should be able to win.


Miami Dolphins
Confidence: 85%

The line favors Miami here too, by -3.  Oakland's injuries will hinder them and the Dolphins have been looking good with their new QB.

Friday, Dec 2, 2011 Picks

Syracuse Orange
Confidence: 95%

I love Syracuse in this one with the -6.5 line in their favor.  My analysis on this game is limited since not many games have been played, but Syracuse has looked good, beating Virginia Tech and Stanford.  Granted, Florida is better than VT and Stanford; however, I think Syracuse is the better team.  With home court advantage and the -6.5 line, Syracuse is the pick tonight.

Wed, Nov 30, 2011 Picks

Michigan State Spartans
Confidence: 95%

With the line at -7.5 in favor of Michigan State and home court advantage, Michigan State is the pick for tonight.

Sunday, Nov 27, 2011 Picks

1:00
Carolina Panthers
Confidence: 90%

I think Indy continues to become 0-11 after this game.  They haven't looked too good all season and while the Panthers have certainly not had the best season, they're looking better than the Colts.  The line is -3 in favor of Carolina and the Colts just don't look good without Manning.


4:15
New England Patriots
Confidence: 85%

The line favors the Patriots by -3 here.  The Pats have been looking great in the last two weeks, combining for a 76-19 score against their opponents.  With Vick and Maclin out, I think it's enough to give  Brady and the Pats the edge.

7:00
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Confidence: 90%

This pick is basically based on the line, which is at -5.  The Gophers are undefeated so far, but that's not saying too much since Dayton is 4-1 also.

9:00
Saint Louis Billikens
Confidence: 85%

I picked this for the same reason I picked the Gophers above - the line.  Saint Louis is favored by -4.5 here, which is good enough for me to choose them.

Wed, Nov 23, 2011 Picks

UCLA: Win or Single Digit Loss
Confidence: 85%

With the line at -5.5 for Michigan, I like the 4 point cushion for UCLA.  These teams are close in caliber, as in it shouldn't be a blowout.


Duke Blue Devils
Confidence: 95%

I like the line at -5 here for Duke, giving them that 5 point cushion.  These teams are both high caliber teams, but I think Duke is a quality, solid team and should win this one in the end.

Tuesday, Nov 22, 2011 Picks

Michigan: Win or Single Digit Loss
Confidence: 85%

Duke's supposed to win by -6.5 here, which gives -3.5 point cushion to Michigan.  Duke is a better team, but Michigan certainly has the potential to play at the same level.  Given that they are both high caliber teams (Duke with the edge), I like Michigan Win or Single Digit Loss.

Sunday, Nov 20, 2011 Picks

Miami Dolphins
Confidence: 70%

My main play on this pick is that the Dolphins are favored by -3.  Granted, the Bills normally look better than the Dolphins, but as of late, the Bills have not looked good.  Also, Miami has the home field advantage here and they have played some teams close over the course of the season, demonstrating that they have the potential to do well.  With the line at -3, it's the most favorable of the 1:00 games.

Sat, Nov 12 Picks

Cincinnati Bearcats
Confidence: 80%

I don't like many of the props today, but giving -3 to the Bearcats at home seems to be one of the better choices for today.  They are at home and their only loss came on the road, in Tennessee.  West Virginia does have an explosive passing offense, but the Bearcats have been playing well, and with the combination of the -3 line and home field advantage, I'm putting my confidence in Cincinnati.


Michigan State
Confidence: 70%

I like Michigan State here.  The oddsmakers are giving -2.5 for them, which is not much, and they are on the road.  MSU has also not won in Iowa since 1989.  That said, I like MSU's in this matchup, which is ranked 8th in the nation.  They have also shown that they can definitely win, with defeats against Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State.  Iowa has not been very consistent, losing to Minnesota.  With the -2.5 line and its great defense, I think MSU should win here.

Fri, Nov 4, 2011 Picks

Tampa Bay Lightning
Confidence: 70%

I'm not big on hockey, but out of all the hockey games tonight, I like the Lightning in this matchup.  Chicago is hot, hoping to its three game win streak.  Tampa Bay is coming off a three game home win streak also.  However, I like the goaltender matchup for Tampa.  Rolson will start for Tampa, and he has won the last three games played against Chicago.  I think that Emery starting gives an advantage to the Lightning.  A big factor in my decision in this pick is also the line, which favors the Lightning.  That, combined with the goaltender matchup and the home field advantage, favors Tampa Bay.

Any Other Result (USC @ Colorado)
Confidence: 80%

I like Any Other Result here due to the line, which gives -20 to USC.  This leaves a 5 point cushion for the prop, which I like for football. USC has not won by 25+ points at all this season.  Granted, they have definitely played better teams than Colorado, and Colorado has lost by 25+ points this season.  USC also put up a fight against Stanford last week.  However, Colorado has the home field advantage.  I'm trusting the oddsmakers more on this one, as I believe there is a reason that the line is at -20 despite USC's stellar play against Stanford (and others this season) and Colorado's not-so-stellar play.

Sunday, October 30, 2011 Pick

New England Patriots
Confidence: 80%


The line here favors the Patriots by -3.0, which is not big, but with Tom Brady's record against the Steelers, I think the Patriots are the pick here.  Brady is 6-1 against the Steelers and has won 4/5 times at Heinz Field.  I think the Patriots offense will take care of its business but the only concern is the Patriots defense, which has not been stellar this season and is up against a good Steelers offense.  However, the Patriots D has been looking better recently, and factoring in the line and Tom Brady, I think the Patriots will win.

Wed, Oct 26 Pick

Vancouver Canucks

Confidence: 80%

I’m not big on hockey, but I think this matchup gives you the best edge tonight.  The line favors Vancouver here and the goaltender matchups also favor Vancouver.  Elliot has a 1-3-0 record against the Canucks, and the Canucks also have home field advantage.  This is close, but I think that Vancouver is the better pick here.

Banned?

Unfortunately, I think I’ve been banned from the ESPN discussions.  The reason for this ban has not been exactly clear to me, but I believe it has something to do with “spamming.”  I had posted a bunch of comments on discussions and attached the link to my blog as sort of a place to get more info.  Some of my comments had deeper analysis than others but they all had some sort of analysis relating to that game.  However, because some of my comments were not that insightful, to some, it seemed as if I were just spamming the link to my blog.  I want to make it clear that it was not my intention to “spam” or “troll”; I tried to add meaningful comments to the game analysis.  In hindsight, I can see how my actions may have been misinterpreted, and I would not make that same mistake again (if I could actually comment).

I want to address those that flagged me, and more specifically, there were a few comments on one of my posts in one of the Colts @ Saints game discussions.  I received some criticism that my comment was just a statement and that it was not even relevant.  Yes, my analysis was not the deepest at the time (I think I said something about the line) but it was clearly relevant to the prop.  Someone also said that 9/10 links there were loaded with viruses.  There is no concrete evidence to back this up and is completely false in the case of my blog.  I am 100% legit, I have been playing SFTC for a while now, and enjoy giving analysis of the props.  Another user claimed that my picks for last night were all wrong, which is true.  I was 0/3 for the recommendations I gave last night; however, I had strongly suggested against picking last night, and said that those were only for people who were desperate or felt compelled to pick.  I was not going to post anything at all, but I figured the reason people play this game is to pick, so why not post it?  As a note for the future, anything I do not give an official confidence rating for means that I value it as lower than 60%.

On that same post, in response to some comments, one user actually backed me up and claimed I was legitimate.  I would like to thank him (or her)– this blog is only about two days old and it is extremely encouraging for me to see that there are people who appreciate what I have to write.  I enjoy writing this and hope to help you improve your streaks.

I will continue to post on this blog but, unfortunately, a lot of my traffic was coming from those ESPN discussion forums.  I appreciate all of you who read my blog and if you like what I’m writing it’d be awesome if you guys could spread the word.  I'm usually busy during the weekdays so there may be fewer posts, but I will definitely do my best to give some analysis at least every other day.  I have also gotten my Twitter up and running, so check that out: http://twitter.com/#!/StreakLock.

I know that this was a long post, but I had to get this out there.

Thanks a lot guys

Sunday, Oct 23, 2011 No Favorable Picks

There are no favorable picks for this afternoon/night.  I am posting these recommendations for only those that are desperate or feel compelled to pick something today.  If I were forced to make a pick for the 4:00 and 8:00 time slots, this is what I would choose: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): Receptions and for 8:25, Any Other Result for the Colts @ Saints prop.  Second best for 4:00 would be Packers: Win by Double Digits.  

I will not put these picks on record, regardless of whether or not I am correct, since this only applies to those who feel the strong urge to pick a game today.  If you have any winning streak, I strongly suggest not picking any games for the rest of today.  I know you guys come here for advice so this is why I posted these recommendations, but I will not be picking any of these.  These recommendations are for those of you who really want to pick today.

Sunday, Oct 23, 2011 Picks

Cleveland Browns
Confidence: 60%


I will not be picking this as I think this is a risky game.  However, for those of you with low streaks or feel as if you must pick, this is the best 1:00 game.  The line here favors the Browns by -3, which is not the best point cushion for this prop, but is the best compared to the other 1:00 props.  Hillis will not be playing as well as Tarvaris Jackson.  Seattle is coming off a bye week, and this year, the records of teams coming off bye weeks is incredibly bad (at one point 1-5?)  This is not clear, but considering the line, how close the teams are in caliber, and the fact that Seattle is coming off a bye, I would pick Cleveland.  However, if you have a W2 or over, just stay away from 1:00 games.

Saturday, Oct. 22, 2011 Picks (cont.)

Michigan State: Win or Single Digit Loss

Confidence: 60%

The line here is Wisconsin by -7.0, which leaves very little margin with the Double Digit Win.  This is mainly why I am only 60% sure on this prop; I will probably not pick this as it is not worth risking a W6.  I recommend this because this pick is the best out of all the nighttime matchups.  Wisconsin has a great offense and defense as well.  Wisconsin’s offense ranks 1^st overall in the nation while its defense is 3^rd.  MSU’s offense is not as potent, but its defense ranks 4^th in the nation, right behind Wisconsin.  Wisconsin is definitely the favorite, but MSU also has a realistic chance of winning.  They both play at such a high level that with regards to this prop, anything can happen. 

A closer look at Wisconsin’s 6-0 record shows that they have blown out all their opponents.  However, there are a couple caveats; Wisconsin has played all its games at home, and its only formidable opponent was Nebraska.  Wisconsin has never faced as good a defense as MSU’s and MSU has the home field advantage, which will be a factor in this game.  Russell Wilson has never seen MSU before and last year MSU beat Wisconsin at home.  Yes, the teams are not the same as last year, but the fact that MSU beat them at home can still be used to a limited degree as an indicator of the coaching and matchup between these two teams. 

I have chosen this pick solely due to the fact that it is more appealing than any of the other night picks.  If you have W3 or more, I would not pick tonight at all.  If you have a lower than a W2 or must pick a game tonight, Michigan State: Win or Single Digit Loss is the way to go.

Saturday, October 22, 2011 Picks (cont.)

Nebraska @ Minnesota: Any Other Result
Confidence: 80%


The line here moved from -24.5 to -24.0 for Nebraska, which is not a big move, but favors Minnesota in this pick.  Yes, Nebraska will win this pick but by 30 points?  Not likely.  With a 6 point cushion for Minnesota, as of this writing, Minnesota is the pick if you're only looking at the line.


However, a few things have kept me wary of this pick, hence the 80% and not 90% confidence rating.  The Gophers are an extremely bad team.  They have been blown out by 58 at Michigan and by 28 at Purdue.  The loss to Michigan is not as worrying as is the loss to Purdue, considering that Purdue is nowhere near the same caliber as Nebraska.


On the other hand, Minnesota has kept it close in the other three losses, with only a 7.33 point differential.  Taking into account the Michigan and Purdue losses, Minnesota has an average losing point differential of 21.6, giving plenty of cushion with the 30+ Winning Margin prop.  Granted, Nebraska definitely has more scoring power than the majority of Minnesota's previous opponents, though, how potent is in question.  However, Nebraska has only won once by 30 points to Chattanooga, not a very good team, and has an average winning margin of 18.  None of the previous histories of either team suggest a Nebraska win of 30+ points, especially since Minnesota is playing at home.  Four of Nebraska's five wins have come at home, and the loss to Wisconsin proves that they are not the top of the elite teams.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Purdue: Win or Single Digit Loss

Confidence: 90%

With the prop being a Double Digit Win for Illinois and the line at -3.5 as of this writing, Purdue has a -6.5 cushion, which should be plenty.  Illinois was a -3.5 favorite in their last game against Ohio State, which resulted in a 17-7 win for Ohio State.  Illinois has not proven itself against any elite teams and, although if I had to choose one, Illinois would be the better team, the odds favor Purdue: Win or Single Digit Loss, especially with the prop being an Illinois Win by Double Digits.  Though it may not have a huge effect, Purdue also has the home field advantage.

Introduction

Hey guys,


I'm creating this blog because I've been playing Streak for the Cash for a couple years now, and I enjoy analyzing the picks.  Some of my background in Streak for the Cash: My Entry.  My crowning achievement has been a W21, which happened about 10 months ago.  I have also had a couple W11's and W13's, which were great learning experiences in helping me refine a strategy for SFTC.  I am an avid sports fan and will try to make this as interesting as possible.
 
I will try to give an explanation of my pick as well as my confidence in it.  In an attempt to be consistent with the the confidence ratings, it will be represented in percentages.  For example, if I am extremely confident with my pick, I will put a 95% next to it.  These confident ratings will help you determine whether or not you should risk your streak on it, depending on how high your streak is.  The higher my confidence rating, the higher streak I think you can risk on it.


If you have any questions, suggestions, or criticisms, please leave a comment or email me at streaklock@gmail.com


Thanks for reading!